Clearly, I am not a theoretical physicist or an AI specialist, but I have been following advancements in these areas since I was a kid. I’m not suggesting that I know how to create a theory on physics, but I do know how to watch the arc of a scientific field’s development. Just like Kurzweil can take statistical data points and show exponential growth, writers and other creative voices are often able to see patterns and suggestions of possibility from outside the scientific community that are harder to perceive from inside the community. Science Fiction writers have certainly been limited in their success of predicting the future, but they often have had a prescient view into inevitable, upcoming advancements in science and technology.

I think my creative imagination is what allows me to understand, all too well, the possible impact of blindly stomping forward in AI, without regard to the existential risks associated with the changes. As it is, I see businesses, relationships, governmental policies and more that aren’t keeping up with what is happening in technology. Structurally, these systems aren’t designed with the flexibility that will be required to deal with the implications of strong AI.

I think that AI does have the potential for wide ranged devastation. However, even in best-case scenarios, it will fundamentally alter our understanding of civilization – likely over the course of just a few years. Most people, companies, and countries are not aware of how ill prepared they are for a world that complex.

As for the AI community – I applaud the epiphany of understanding just how remarkably complex AI actually is. I also hope that they are aware that sometimes their linear, scientific models unnecessarily limit the possible solutions. I think we’re starting to see that this is way more complicated than pure, hard science can accomplish alone. This is a creative venture at its core, so a certain amount of unconventional creative thought will be required to keep up.

For most computer programs this isn’t a serious problem. You have a bug, it annoys a few people, you fix it (maybe). But as you mention, with strong AI you have the potential to threaten humanity’s existence. One must be extremely careful as bugs can be fatal.

There are certain classes of mistakes humans reliably make. This is an artifact of how our brains works. We use heuristics to quickly arrive at generally good answers. But these heuristics aren’t perfect, they have systematic biases, as detailed further in the paper. The field of heuristics and biases studies exactly this. As a result it can tell you how to avoid a bunch of predictable mistakes.

If you plan to work with AI you should at least understand the basics of this field to avoid the obvious mistakes.

Whether we be “amateur” or expert, when we substitute what we wish to be true for what *is* true (factual and repeatedly verifiable in its nature), we have made a grievous error in judgment.

When we a priori dismiss the work of the amateur for the opinion of the expert who *knows* what is true we may have made a similar error in judgment.

Our biases (our *knowing*) often affect our judgment in ways that blind us to the truth, to the facts, and to the evidence.

Yet who can the world trust to be idealistic and moral enough to help all of humanity and the environment, and at the same time, be practical enough to make extremely difficult decisions that can and will harm a great deal of people?

Humanitism is a philosophy for the continued survival and perpetuation of the human race. Humanitists (people who believe in humanitism) do not have the luxury of trying again after failing. Humanitists must be more vigilant than environmentalists, because we will not have a second chance at survival.

The survival of humanity is more important than the well being of our environment; however the environment is necessary for humanity to survive. That does not give the right for big businesses to continue doing whatever they want with only minimal or no consideration for the environment, so long as our surroundings support human life. We need to protect the environment for the continued survival and future well being of humanity. Keep in mind that without the human race, there would be no one and no need to protect the environment. Therefore, humanitism is more important than environmentalism.

It seems that in the past 50 years the human race has pursued the money train, that such desire for financial gain has caused society to ignore and abandon honesty, values, morality and candidness etc.

The race to financial gain has caused our leaders and the executives of the corporate world to disregard laws, ethics and the caring for each other and humanity as a whole. Deception, fraud and outright theft are their new motto all for the sake of financial gain, fame and success.

It seems that for the sake of success and profit people will step on anybody, family friends, co-workers and anyone who stands in their way or take advantage of anyone that could help them achieve what they want.

That is not to say that honest and compassionate people who care do not exist, where honesty and integrity is a way of life for them, but they are a very small minority.

As we begin the year 2008, we should all look at the past and decide with determination that everyone will from now on contribute to the betterment of humanity, society and mankind.

We should all learn to live with each other and respect each other for the sustainability of mankind.

Compiled by: Yehuda Draiman – 1/1/2007

When a country and its society import more than they export for over a quarter of a century, it is bound to erod the economy to its primate state.

We have only ourselves to blame, what goods and products are we exporting, what goods and services are produced in the USA, the answer is very little by comparison.

In the past 50 years as our population has increased, technology advanced, we have become a nation that consumes enormous amounts of resources, we shop for competitive prices. Corporate America is constantly looking to increase the bottom line.

Most of the goods for and by Americans and its companies are produced overseas and in the past decade with the advancement of telecommunications, many of the services sector are also imported.

The increased costs of energy over the past 10 years, has affected the economy to unimaginable comprehension.

This economic activity has eroded our economy to its core. It seems that the situation is getting worse every year. American debts are increasing beyond our wildest dreams, endangering the future economic vitality of our future generation.

I hope it is not too late for our society to recognize the graveness of our economic predicament and its resolve to take appropriate action to stem the tide of our economic downturn.

Americans are a nation of great technology and knowhow. We must utilize that technology and our resources to find new means to regain our economic independence.

We must face and implement fiscal responsibility, both by the government and the population with its infrastructure of corporate America.

It is no longer an option, it is a must if we as a nation want to survive and retain our way of life and economic vitality.

Inflation, recession and financial crises are here. Let us take the bull by the horn, initiate immediate actions to minimize and hopefully reverse our economic crises.

Yehuda Draiman, Northridge, CA. 1-22-2007

PS
The US economy has enormous momentum. Metaphorically speaking, if someone turned off the locomotive that drives the US economy, the economy would go on for miles before anyone would likely notice something was wrong. But something has been wrong for many years. Is there really hope for the future? Maybe. But the terrible truth is that no one really knows. But if there is hope, we’re already on the wrong track. And that has to change.

It is definitely NOT about statistics, about mathematics, about psychology or any other empirical analytic science. As important as they are, what is necessary is a thinking about responsible synthesis, which of course is singular as any emergent phenomenon. Just the opposite the tribe at CERN is demonstrating with their vastly expensive toy (LHC).