How Gartner Learned to Love the Virtual World
October 8th, 2007 –
I’m blogging Gartner Symposium down in Orlando this week. You can read all of my posts at Singularity University. My favorite session so far is: Generation Virtual: How a 40th-Level Half-Elf From Secaucus, New Jersey Will Change Your Business, by Gartner analyst Adam Sarner.
Of course, they cast this presentation in the “mavericks” track so as not to scare the assembled techies too much, but the very fact that Gartner is investing research dollars into this space is a bell-weather in my opinion.
Adam’s predictions:
- All you need is love: By 2015, 2% of people in the U.S. will be married to people they will never meet in person.
- A convenient truth: By 2015, time spent online will compete with the real world becoming the most “green” activity, reducing the average person’s overall carbon footprint by more than 50%.
- The dot-com bomb: Sales and marketing of products and services to virtual personas will “explode,” overtaking B2C spending by 2020.
- The day the earth stood still: By 2020, more than 70% of R&D investment in personal robotics will shift to virtual personal assistants.
- Mayor McBlank: A city will elect a virtual anonymous persona for mayor by 2020.
One of Sarner’s more powerful memes was the relationship between Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs and the emergence of Virtual worlds and AIs. Sarner believes that the virtual world is providing the “self-actualization” that Maslow forecast, but few have been able to achieve in Meatspace.
The latter half of his presentation focused on the emergence of personal AIs – what he called “persona bots”.
His take: In 2017, the persona bot will be mass adopted (more than 20 million active persona bot users in the U.S. alone; more than 10 million in the rest of the world). The drivers for this mass adoption are primarily the persona bot’s time shifting/time saving ability, and ability and authority to carry out tasks on the user’s behalf. The persona bot’s strength will be its ability to be at many virtual places at once, seeking vast amounts of territory, while filtering back and reporting on relevant information.
Just as the customer will have the persona bot as a “killer application,” companies will have their own automated bot for critical relationship handling, such as sales, customer service and marketing. By 2010, more than 15% of B2C Fortune 1000 companies with a Web site will use a chat bot for online customer service. Top drivers, such as 24/7 presence and the ability to communicate domain expertise, will help customers navigate their way toward a purchase. A practice already used is text-based hybrid bots with the ability to start an automated conversation with a customer, then alert a live representative to take over the avatar once a lead is qualified. Eventually, companies will need to develop an interaction process around a fully automated persona bot gathering information from a fully automated company bot.
Sarner’s recommendations to the assembled IT intelligentsia:
- Companies should organize and target products and services online based on mankind’s journey toward self-actualization.
- Sell to the persona, not the person. A persona will show you how it wants to be treated.
- Create virtual environments as a way to orchestrate customer exploration toward purchases.
- Shift from collecting demographic data to psychographic data for understanding online persona behavior and its interaction with others.
- Shift Investment from known customers to unknown ones. Focus on the influencers within the meritocracy.
- Develop and retain or outsource new skills to attract, connect, contribute and gain insight from personas and virtual environments.
- Begin to develop strategy, process and technology around relationships with persona bots as a tool for mutual exploration.
I’m glad to see that Gartner is getting on board. Their perspective will help drive attention and investment to the area.
You guys (the singularity crowd) are weird. Gartner is “getting on board”. You are no better than divisive two sided insult my intelligence pundits who spew partisan drivel all over the airwaves leaving us with a two sided dumb as a stump populace.
Singularity is not about “getting on board”! It’s a perilous (albeit arguably inevitable barring global energy shortages) event that requires leadership and nuance and a gigantic dose of broader humanity’s input/awareness if it is not to be the continued murderous madness that our runaway train civilization is today. So while yes it is very nice to see Gartner pushing the envelope of us routine oriented change averse humans and jarring us into the reality of the pace of change and it’s cumulative realities, I hardly think such acceptance and awareness promotion should be cheered like a victory with a good ol’ American BOOYAH! Necessary perhaps, but it should also be sold recognizing that singularity is as ominous as it is exciting, and although the notion of meeting our needs virtually is certainly a stimulating tool, our physical deterioration on an epidemic scale should be more than enough evidence that it is hardly so clear our continuing symbiosis will benefit our species at least as much as it harms it. Have enough perspective to differentiate between a a Wall Street-esque speed race towards singularity and an arrival in a world with something remotely close to the power and leadership it would require to ensure it is not a fool’s errand we can no longer rethink.
[…] a list of predictions that are a lot more interesting. They are from a post by Jonas Lamis on the SIAI (Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence) blog. They are by Gartner Symposium analyst Adam Sarner: All you need is love: By 2015, 2% of people in […]
The day the earth stood still: By 2020, more than 70% of R&D investment in personal robotics will shift to virtual personal assistants.
So we may wind up having NetNavis before intelligent robots, huh? Cool.
[…] When I read posts like this on the Singularity Institute blog, I’m reminded how much I am enjoying living in a time where our technology acquisition rate is tending from horizontal to vertical. […]
To Whom It May Concern:
I’ve written a play set in the world of Artifical Intelligence and the Loebner Competition. Thanks for all your amazing research!
Nic
LODESTONE THEATER ENSEMBLE PRESENTS:
Trapezoid
Trapezoid tells the story of a lovestruck Korean American poet hired to put the “art” in a robot’s artificial intelligence. When the technological creation falls in love with its human creator, it’s man-made versus mankind with comic and tragic results.
Trapezoid runs from April 19th - May 25th (Friday, Saturday - 8pm / Sunday - 2pm)
**Low price $8.00 previews on April 17-18 at 8pm
General Admission: $16.00 / Students & Seniors: $14.00 / Groups of 10+: $12.00
**April 19th - $25/Opening Night Gala **All Sunday shows (except May 25) are pay-what-you can ($1.00 min)
RSVP: 323-993-7245
Website: http://www.myspace.com/trapezoid2008
LOS ANGELES, CA – Lodestone Theatre Ensemble presents the world premiere of Trapezoid, running April 19 - May 25, 2008 at the GTC Burbank (1111-B West Olive Ave., Burbank, CA 91506) located inside George Izay Park. Following on the heels of one of its most critically-acclaimed and commercially successful seasons, the award-winning theatre company kicks off its ninth season with a new play by Lodestone Resident Producer Nic Cha Kim and directed by Scott Horstein.
Lodestone’s first presentation of a play in the science-fiction genre, Trapezoid tells the story of a Korean American poet in love hired by a technology think tank to put the “art” in artificial intelligence. When the robot creation falls in love with the human creator, it’s man-made versus mankind with sometimes comic and sometimes tragic results.
The cast includes Julia Cho, Antonia Grace Glenn, Alberto Isaac, Lanny Joon, Elaine Kao, Charles Kim, Ryan Mercado , Leonard Wu, Elpidio Ebuen, John Fukuda, Grace Kim, Stephanie Lincoln, Brian P. Nichols and Enoch Wu.
“Trapezoid is a loose adaptation of Pygmalion and Galatea but instead of sculpture, we use poetry,” explains playwright Nic Cha Kim. “From Collodi’s Pinocchio, Shelley’s Frankenstein and Philip K. Dick’s Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep, artificial intelligence has been a fixture of science-fiction for centuries despite only being a science for the last 65 years. Trapezoid is my homage to scientists and science fiction writers alike.”
Trapezoid playwright Nic Cha Kim is a Korean American writer, video artist and community activist. The recipient of numerous distinctions from the City of Los Angeles, Kim is best known for founding Gallery Row and leading the effort to create a gallery district in Downtown Los Angeles. As owner of Niche Video Art, his work curating cutting-edge digital and video art has been recognized in Art Forum, LA Times and the Downtown News. Kim was voted top 10 most influential Angeleno by LA Alternative Press and profiled on LA18 in the segment Our Role Models. This is Kim’s first mainstage production at Lodestone.
Scott Horstein has directed workshops, readings and/or served as dramaturg at the Black Dahlia Theater, East West Players, the West Coast Ensemble, the Oregon Shakespeare Festival, Berkeley Rep, San Diego Rep and the Old Globe, where he dramaturged for Arthur Miller on his penultimate play Resurrection Blues.
Performances are Fridays and Saturdays at 8 pm, Sundays at 2 pm., April 19 – May 25, with low-priced previews on April 17 and 18. Tickets are $16 for general admission, $14 for students/seniors. Group rates of $12 each are available for reservations of ten or more. Tickets for the April 19th Opening Night Gala with a post-show reception are $25. All Sunday matinees (except May 25) will be pay-what-you-can admission with a $1 minimum.
For more information, call the Lodestone Theatre Ensemble hotline at (323) 993-7245 or visit www.lodestonetheatre.org or www.myspace.com/lodestonetheatre or www.myspace.com/trapezoid2008
Founded in 1999 by Philip W. Chung, Alexandra Chun, Chil Kong and Tim Lounibos, Lodestone is committed to providing a forum for Asian Pacific American artists in all aspects of the theatre arts. Lodestone seeks to challenge limited perceptions of Asian Pacific Americans through the creation of original theatrical productions as well as a fresh retelling of established works.
Lodestone Theatre Ensemble is a Company-in-Residence at GTC Burbank.