The Logical Fallacy of Generalization from Fictional Evidence
November 19th, 2007 –
From my other blog, Overcoming Bias:
When I try to introduce the subject of advanced AI, what’s the first thing I hear, more than half the time?
“Oh, you mean like the Terminator movies / the Matrix / Asimov’s robots!”
And I reply, “Well, no, not exactly. I try to avoid the logical fallacy of generalizing from fictional evidence.”
Thanks, Eliezer.
I find myself, however, often using this fallacy as a tool to help others understand advanced AI and Singularity concepts.
I do feel that there are specific instances of technology which can be explained by our fiction (i.e. Brain-computer interfaces and a coded environment), while sometimes this fiction can inspire us to create.
How hard, then, should we try to ignore the fact that advanced AI is fictional, at present?
When does speculation not count as fiction?
How hard, then, should we try to ignore the fact that advanced AI is fictional, at present?
We shouldn’t. I doubt that anyone is. It is possible to discuss things that do not yet exist.
When does speculation not count as fiction?
When it’s designed to be good realistic speculation, not a good story. I would think.
“I try to avoid the logical fallacy of generalizing from fictional evidence”
Ouch. That’s sure to get them on board, and get you a date with the friend as well .. if she’s Asimo the robot. This issue raises a concern we should have with the way the AI community is now handling public relations. I’d suggest a much softer approach. To counter the silly concerns of even smart people that AI poses more of a threat than a benefit, I think it’s important to help people understand they have a a very intimate relationship with many technologies right now. Medicines, computers, spectacles, internet, phones, transport, etc,etc. The coming technologies are best examined as part of a long history of progress.
Speculation based upon known facts and evidence can be an important part of the discovery process; opening up new paths of research.
The problem arises when we accept our own speculations - or those of others - as fact.
Well said, Eliezer. Could you add a few words on the appropriate role of fiction? You have said that it can inspire. More detail?
Take a look at my Artificial Intelligence Blog
http://turingtest-boutiquerake.blogspot.com/