SIAI 2008 Summer Research Project
June 23rd, 2008 –
Anna Salamon, Stephen Rayhawk, and Thomas McCabe will be researching and writing papers on singularity risks this summer in Palo Alto. They aim to fill gaps in previous SIAI-published analyses by mapping out alternate scenarios. In particular, they will model the effects of economic forces on artificial general intelligence (AGI) growth after roughly human-level AGI has been achieved, given a scenario in which there are not strong positive feedbacks in intelligence development. They also hope to create an early version of an eventual, publicly viewable wiki, mapping out the total space of scenarios involving AGI and existential risk.
What about the ramp-up period, before “roughly human level” AGI has been achieved?
I see a lot of jobs out there that can be done by eight year olds. Child labor laws prevent humans of that age from doing them, of course, but seeing how many grown adults have no choice but to occupy these dead-end jobs, doesn’t it make sense that software that could replace the job, if not the worker, would have a significant impact before “roughly human level” AGI arrives?
How many times have heard people say something to the effect that they’re job makes them feel like a “mindless” machine or robot?
Yes. Once we have a machine with roughly the capabilities - mental and physical - of a six year old child, and which can be economically manufactured, then it’s game over for much of the economic system as we know it today because a large range of jobs currently done exclusively by humans will rapidly fall within the domain of automation. This is likely to cause changes in lifestyle at least as big as those resulting from the industrial revolution.
Won’t they just transition into automaton-related manufacture, support, sales, and transport?